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Market Outlook and Central Banks activity

December 2016 was characterized by an important activity from the Central Banks ECB and BOJ.

market outlook central banksThe markets focused on Italy and on Central Banks activity in December 2016. After the clear vote against the constitutional reform proposed by the Democratic Party,and the resignation of Prime Minister Renzi, a transitional government has been formed,led by the former Minister for Foreign Affairs Paolo Gentiloni. Possible elections cannot be ruled out for the first half of 2017 under pressure from the main opposition party (the Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo).

Monte dei Paschi. In order to achieve a capital ratio of 11.5%, the oldest Italian bank planed to raise €8.8bn. But this transaction failed: the Italian government has had to inject €4.6bn of new capital and subordinated debt will be converted into equity (€4.2bn). Subordinated bond holders will be compensated by the government for €2bn.In other words,a cost of €6.6bn for the Italian public finances.

Important activity from the Central Banks. The European Central Bank (ECB) has announced a €20bn reduction in its asset purchases to €60bn a month from April 2017 but extended the program to December 2017. The ECB decided to allow them to buy bonds at yields below the deposit floor. All ended up reassuring the markets and had a huge steepening effect, always positive for the banking sector.

After announcements from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) a few months ago (with a focus on the steepening of the curves, rather than on negative rates), it seems to us that the central banks are finally recognising the punitive effects of this climate of negative interest rates on the banks and therefore on the economy.

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