According to IEA, global gas demand is expected to grow by 1.6% a year for the next five years as US drives market transformation.
The United States will account for 40% of the world’s extra gas production to 2022 thanks to the remarkable growth in its domestic shale industry. The United States will account for 40% of the global extra production to 2022 thanks to the remarkable growth in its domestic shale industry. Global gas demand is expected to grow by 1.6% a year for the next five years, with consumption reaching almost 4,000 billion cubic meters (bcm) by 2022, up from 3,630 bcm in 2016.
China will account for 40% of this growth. Demand from the industrial sector becomes the main engine of gas consumption growth, replacing power generation, where gas is being squeezed by growing renewables and competition from coal.
The United States – the world’s largest gas consumer and producer – will account for 40% of the world’s extra gas production to 2022 thanks to the remarkable growth in its domestic shale industry. By 2022, US production will be 890 bcm, or more than a fifth of global gas output. Production from the Marcellus, one of the world’s largest fields, will increase by 45% between 2016 and 2022, even at current low price levels, as producers increase efficiency and produce more gas with fewer rigs.
While US domestic demand for gas is growing, thanks to higher consumption from the industrial sector, more than half of the production increase will be used for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for export. By 2022, the IEA estimates that the United States will be on course to challenge Australia and Qatar for global leadership among LNG exporters.
US LNG will be a catalyst for change in the international gas market, diversifying supply, challenging traditional business models and suppliers, and transforming global gas security. A new wave of liquefaction capacity is coming online at a time when the LNG market is already well supplied.
At the same time, this ample availability of LNG is also creating new competition with pipeline gas supplies, which could benefit consumers. This intense competition is loosening pricing and contractual rigidities that have traditionally characterized long-distance gas trade. The change will be accelerated by the expansion of US exports, which are not tied to any particular destination and will play a major role in increasing the liquidity and flexibility of LNG trade.
Europe could see growing competition between LNG imports and pipeline gas as domestic production declines, creating extra uncertainty on the sources of future supply. The recent standoff involving Qatar, which supplies about a third of the world’s LNG, and neighboring countries has also underscored potential risks to gas supply security.